Betting Worth Sitting With Visiting Seagulls (April 9)

Arsenal vs. Brighton Odds

Arsenal Odds -165
Brighton Odds +450
Draw +300
Over beneath 2.5 (-110 / -130)
Day | Time Saturday | 10 a.m. ET
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Arsenal squandered an important alternative to carry grip on the fourth and last Champions League place in Premier League motion Monday, however has an opportunity to leap again into that spot Saturday when it faces Brighton & Hove Albion at Emirates Stadium.

The Seagulls come into this match with little to play for since its mid-table place is safe within the league, however that is the EPL and a consequence might be desired nonetheless.

So, how will this necessary fixture play out forward of a busy weekend within the English prime flight? Let’s have a look to see the place we will discover betting worth.

Arsenal Coming into Essential Interval of Fixtures

With 9 video games to play, Arsenal has an opportunity to outline the course of its season and the marketing campaign that follows. Ending fourth within the EPL and the UCL place that it will entail might enable the Reds higher funds, a capability to signal higher gamers and a spot in probably the most prestigious competitors within the sport.

Previous to Monday’s fixture towards Crystal Palace, Arsenal regarded like a membership that was intent on making that occur with six wins in its seven prior Premier League video games. The loss to Palace isn’t one which defines Arsenal’s type, per se, however slip-ups like that may very well be essential in dropping out of a UCL place.

Because it stands, the Gunners are in fifth place, sitting solely behind Tottenham on purpose differential. Nevertheless, Spurs do have a recreation in hand. Arsenal has two video games in hand on sixth-place West Ham United and one on seventh-place Manchester United, plus it’s forward of every crew by three factors.

Arsenal has video games towards every of these groups, and whereas these fixtures might be extremely important, securing leads to matches like these are almost simply as necessary. The Gunners have 5 dwelling video games remaining, so any outright loss in these fixtures can be a large setback.

Fading Brighton Tumbling Late in Season

Brighton’s destiny on this yr’s Premier League was decided weeks, if not months, in the past and its performances have mirrored that state of affairs.

The Seagulls have misplaced six of their final seven EPL video games, with their lone non-loss coming of their final fixture towards last-place Norwich Metropolis.

That being mentioned, a few of Brighton’s performances have been higher than outcomes present. Towards Norwich and Newcastle United, the Seagulls maintained expected-goal edges. And in every of its final seven video games, Brighton under-performed towards the fixture’s xG margin.

That’s an encouraging signal for the remainder of the season and the subsequent, however it doesn’t change the outcomes. An enormous reason behind under-performing towards xG is poor ending, which has has doomed Brighton of late. The Seagulls have the second-worst conversion fee within the league (4.8%), in order that they’ll want to vary that if optimistic outcomes are going to return.


BJ Cunningham’s EPL Projections


Betting Evaluation & Decide

Trusting xG to point outcomes over the long run is one thing I consider in and it leads me to make selections that may appear unconventional at occasions. On this occasion, I’ve to do this once more.

Backing Arsenal to safe a consequence at dwelling towards a aspect that has misplaced six of its final seven video games might sound smart, however at -165 odds, the worth actually isn’t there, neither is it taking part in the favourite to win by two or extra objectives. As an alternative, I’ll look to again Brighton to get a draw or victory.

The Seagulls have a -0.08 xG margin/recreation away from dwelling, whereas Arsenal’s differential/recreation on the Emirates is 0.89 on the season. And regardless that the Gunners have been trending upward whereas Brighton has been the alternative, the customer’s outcomes haven’t truly mirrored its performances to a big extent.

Though we noticed the Arsenal regression Monday that was due, I nonetheless consider the worth lies with the away aspect when evaluating costs. I might count on this recreation to complete inside a purpose a big portion of the time, so backing Brighton choosing up +0.5 objectives on the unfold line at these odds might be my greatest wager.

Decide: Brighton +0.5 (+130)

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