Liverpool vs. Benfica Betting Preview (April 13)

Liverpool vs. Benfica Odds

Liverpool Odds -375
Benfica Odds +950
Draw +500
Over underneath 3.5 (-105 / -130)
Day | Time Wednesday | 3 p.m. ET
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Odds up to date through BetMGM. Stand up-to-the-minute soccer odds right here.

Wednesday’s Champions League motion options Liverpool internet hosting Benfica at Anfield within the second leg of their quarterfinal-round tie.

It will be one of many largest shocks within the historical past of the competitors if the Portuguese facet discovered a solution to progress (you may get Benfica as excessive as +3000 to advance to the semifinal stage), however this can be a place the place we’ve seen some loopy issues occur over time.

So, does Benfica have any probability of pushing Liverpool for a outcome? Let’s dive into it and see the place we are able to discover some betting worth.

Liverpool in Tense Interval of Play

Together with the Reds’ most up-to-date fixtures, their run in seems to be like this: Benfica (UCL), Manchester Metropolis (EPL), Benfica (UCL), Manchester Metropolis (FA Cup), Manchester United (EPL) and Everton in an EPL conflict. That’s nearly as intense of a interval as Liverpool can presumably play, with UCL video games, key league matches in opposition to rivals and a head-to-head conflict with its fellow title contender.

The Reds’ stage couldn’t and may’t drop for an prompt or they might face elimination from the UCL, Metropolis working away with the EPL title or elimination from the FA Cup. The previous two are crucial, and maybe Liverpool may battle only a tad solely on this upcoming fixture and survive, however that is as intense as a schedule will get within the sport.

As such, the important thing query heading into the third recreation of the six-game interval is can Liverpool keep its stage forward of yet one more key fixture?

Liverpool just lately drew with Manchester Metropolis of their essential EPL battle, and it was most likely a good outcome total. We additionally know that of all groups on the planet, if any is able to sustaining kind via a troublesome interval, Liverpool is true on the high of groups you’d take into consideration.

It is a membership that has challenged on two fronts for 4 years in a row (with one EPL blip final yr), so perception inside the membership can be excessive. If health can match that confidence, Liverpool ought to be effectively on its approach towards the semifinals.

Benfica Searching for Miracle of Highest Order

Check out these outcomes:

  • Liverpool 4, Barcelona 0
  • Rome 3, Barcelona 0
  • Barcelona 6, Paris Saint-Germain 1
  • Chelsea 4, Napoli 1

These are simply among the biggest UCL second-leg, knockout-stage comebacks within the competitors’s historical past, so it appears like Benfica progressing right here may high nearly all of these.

The Eagles must go to Anfield and do one thing just one crew has executed throughout all competitions and that’s beat the Reds in house soil. It would present a little bit of solace to Benfica figuring out the one crew that accomplished that feat was in a remarkably related scenario to itself, however that received’t make it any simpler.

Inter Milan went into Anfield with a two-goal deficit within the Spherical of 16, simply as Benfica is right here, and it beat the Reds through its 1-0 shutout. After all, that outcome nonetheless put Liverpool via, so the most effective outcome that any away crew notched at Anfield wouldn’t be sufficient to ship Benfica via to the semifinal spherical.

Nonetheless, as I discussed above, we’ve seen some wild leads to these conditions over the previous 5 years and Benfica will are available in figuring out they want objectives with nothing to lose.

On this sport, you by no means know.

Betting Evaluation & Decide

Second legs which have close to inconceivable outcomes are all the time troublesome to judge, however on this case, the analytics level to an awesome outcome.

Liverpool’s 1.17 expected-goals margin/recreation in UCL play at house is definitely worse than its total differential when accounting for street video games, however within the EPL that quantity rises to 1.78 total.

For Benfica, its street xG differential sits at -0.65, however the situation for the underdog is that it must take the initiative. That isn’t how Benfica usually succeeds, because it confirmed in opposition to Ajax that it may well counterattack and defend like an elite facet when wanted.

Contemplating the Reds boast certainly one of, if not the most effective protection on the planet proper now, there isn’t an ideal outlook for the underdogs to have a path via.

I’ll belief Liverpool to do what it has been doing all yr and thrive at house in opposition to a facet with its again in opposition to the wall.

Decide: Liverpool -1.5 (-130)

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